The Front Range Forecast: Cold fronts moderate summer weather

In Brief:

Summer in the short-term, moisture returns for the weekend.

Forecast Discussion:

As fall begins to appear on the horizon (only about 6 weeks away), we are seeing cold front pushed across the state by passing troughs. One arriving Tuesday will cool us to the upper 80-90F (Figure 1). There is a high located over the state (Figure 3) that is shunting the good moisture further west (Figure 2) and suppressing convection.

Figure1_08022022 — Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com

Figure2_08022022 — Figure 2: the water vapor satellite image from the NWS

Figure3_08022022 — Figure 3: the 500mb upper air forecast map for Thursday from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

By the end of the week, the high shifts far to the east (Figure 4). With an approaching trough, a couple of cold fronts knocks us down to the lower 80s and rain chances really pick up for the weekend (Figure 1). Rainfall statewide for the next 5 days is still best over the mountains and minimal on the plains unless you get a lucky thunderstorm (Figure 5).