Chilly wet weekend, warm week with afternoon storms.
A remarkable cold front has slipped down over the state. Temperatures feel chilly after the recent periods of summer heat. We should see chilly rain with upslope flow behind the front this weekend (Figure 1 update). A warm up begins on Monday with Tuesday being the driest day of the week. After that we get very typical summer temperatures and afternoon thunderstorm chances (you can see the afternoon pulses of elevated rain chances).
I'm getting away this week to camp. I don't expect any big surprises in the weather and will keep updates coming as needed. Always be careful when you hear thunder! (Note, Independence Day looks pretty warm but not too stormy at this time.)
End Saturday update.
There is one last chance of thunderstorms (until about Thursday or Friday) on Sunday (Figure 1). Further, there is a Marginal Risk (1 on a scale of 1-5) that a few of these storms Sunday may produce damaging straight line winds (damaging hail and tornadoes are not in the forecast) for areas north and west of Denver (Figure 2). This is due to ample daytime heating and an above average amount of atmospheric moisture in place over the state (Figure 3 and green coloration in Figure 4).
The Longer Range Forecast:
Figure 1 shows that storm chances drop to zero at the start of the week (but thankfully temperatures don't go crazy like they have recently). The moisture gets swept to the south and east of the state (Figure 5). Still, over the next five days (Figure 6), not a lot of water is expected to hit any particular spot. Storm motion will be quite quick to the northeast on Sunday - flooding is only a risk over recent burn scars in the mountains.
Later in the week, moisture is expected to REALLY make a come back with better and better storm chances each afternoon until the weekend which should be very stormy. Prepare for rain next weekend!