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Sat Update: The Front Range Forecast: Cool with afternoon storms

Marginal severe weather Sunday followed by a dry week then increasing moisture late week.

In Brief:

Chilly wet weekend, warm week with afternoon storms.

Saturday Update:

A remarkable cold front has slipped down over the state.  Temperatures feel chilly after the recent periods of summer heat. We should see chilly rain with upslope flow behind the front this weekend (Figure 1 update). A warm up begins on Monday with Tuesday being the driest day of the week.  After that we get very typical summer temperatures and afternoon thunderstorm chances (you can see the afternoon pulses of elevated rain chances).

I'm getting away this week to camp.  I don't expect any big surprises in the weather and will keep updates coming as needed.  Always be careful when you hear thunder! (Note, Independence Day looks pretty warm but not too stormy at this time.)

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Figure 1 update: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com

End Saturday update.

Forecast Discussion:

There is one last chance of thunderstorms (until about Thursday or Friday) on Sunday (Figure 1). Further, there is a Marginal Risk (1 on a scale of 1-5) that a few of these storms Sunday may produce damaging straight line winds (damaging hail and tornadoes are not in the forecast) for areas north and west of Denver (Figure 2).  This is due to ample daytime heating and an above average amount of atmospheric moisture in place over the state (Figure 3 and green coloration in Figure 4).

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Figure 1: the 10 day graphical forecast for Denver from weatherunderground.com
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Figure 2: the severe weather forecast from the SPC for Sunday.
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Figure 3: the surface map analysis from the NWS and NOAA for Sunday.
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Figure 4: the precipitatable water anomaly for Sunday morning from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

The Longer Range Forecast:

Figure 1 shows that storm chances drop to zero at the start of the week (but thankfully temperatures don't go crazy like they have recently). The moisture gets swept to the south and east of the state (Figure 5). Still, over the next five days (Figure 6), not a lot of water is expected to hit any particular spot. Storm motion will be quite quick to the northeast on Sunday - flooding is only a risk over recent burn scars in the mountains. 

Later in the week, moisture is expected to REALLY make a come back with better and better storm chances each afternoon until the weekend which should be very stormy.  Prepare for rain next weekend!

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Figure 5: the precipitatable water anomaly for Tuesday morning from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com
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Figure 6: the rainfall total for the next 5 days from the GFS and weather5280.com